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时事评论:中东和平下的俄中平衡因素

2020年06月30日 15:27:59  來源:香港法治报

当全世界都面临着流行病的严峻挑战并忙于战胜COVID-19的时候,以色列却为其扩张计划找到了机会。

以色列最近一轮的持续占领和土地掠夺行为,让局势变得更加混乱。预计71日,以色列总理内塔尼亚胡宣布以色列将吞并约旦河谷和北死海。吞并是指一个国家在其边界内单方面合并另一个领土,吞并西岸、约旦河谷、戈兰高地和邻国的其他一些地区。这意味着以色列将正式把这些区域视为以色列国的一部分。

联合国秘书长古特雷斯(Antonio Guterres)呼吁以色列放弃吞并约旦河西岸部分地区的计划,称此举将是“违反国际法最严重的行为”。

来自欧洲各地的一千多名议员签署了一封联名信,抗议以色列计划吞并被占领的西岸部分地区。这封发给欧洲所有外交部的信认为,此举对和平解决巴以冲突是致命的。

自以色列1948年诞生以来,美国一直在支持以色列,而特朗普政府更加偏袒以色列。特朗普政府支持以色列将首都从特拉维夫迁往耶路撒冷的决定。取消伊朗核协议仅仅是基于以色列总理内塔尼亚胡对特朗普总统的陈述。

特朗普总统是202011月举行的美国总统选举的候选人,犹太人对美国选举有重大影响。虽然他们在选票中所占比例很少,但他们的资金在选举中起着至关重要的作用或决定性的作用。因为不受欢迎的决定过去损害了他在国际上的声誉,也可能损害他在国内的声望,所以特朗普总统目前似乎不愿意支持以色列吞并,但他也很清楚犹太人在他连任中所起的作用。

俄罗斯和中国在中东有很大的利害关系,不能通过以色列国接受美国的霸权。俄罗斯在叙利亚的存在和中国对中东经济的渗透是至关重要的因素。中俄同巴勒斯坦和以色列周边国家都保持着良好的关系。伊朗可能是中国和俄罗斯在反以色列联盟中的共同朋友。

接受以色列吞并意味着承认以色列和美国的霸权。另一方面,包括联合国在内的全世界都要求以色列不要吞并。欧盟也反对其吞并行径,但都缺乏军事力量迫使以色列放弃扩张主义动机。穆斯林世界太天真,不能用军事手段抵抗以色列。而俄罗斯和中国是军事大国,都是联合国安理会常任理事国,拥有否决权。他们既有外交和政治权力,又有军事力量,只有俄中两国能够在中东发挥平衡作用。

俄中可以通过外交途径和谈判,友好地推动解决所有分歧和争端,迫使双方按照《联合国宪章》解决所有问题。俄中有能力为中东地区实现全面持久的和平发挥至关重要的决定性作用。俄中可以为世界和平稳定、全球和谐繁荣作出贡献。

附件:时事评论员巴铁泽米尔简介

Zamir Awan,泽米尔阿万,笔名:巴铁泽米尔。现任巴基斯坦国立科技大学中国研究中心副主任。巴基斯坦驻中国大使馆原科技参赞。泽米尔生于196231日,80年代在中国留过学。在上海大学获得学士与硕士学位,机械专业。

2010年,在巴基斯坦驻华大使馆,担任参赞,负责中巴两国之间科技交流与发展科技合作。中巴两国政治关系非常密切,通称“铁哥们儿全天候战列合作伙伴”的关系。科技算战略地位,所以两国也重视科技交流与合作。

泽米尔阿万,利用他在中国学习时学过的知识(包括农业、林业、生物学、健康业、工业、水电、能源、高等教育等等)加强了合作关系。签订了不少合同与协议,推动力不少项目。

他为巴中两国人民之间的友谊做了不少的工作,特别一带一路与巴中经济走廊方面。在他的任期中,在两国关系发展壮大。

While the whole world is facing the severechallenge of Pandemic and over-busy in defeating COVID-19, Israel finds anopportunity for its expansion designs.

The latest round of Israels ongoingoccupation and policy of land-grabs this action could become even moredisjointed. On 1 July, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected toannounce Israels annexation of the Jordan Valley and the northern Dead Sea. Annexationis a term used when a state unilaterally incorporates another territory withinits bordersannexing the West Bank, Jordan Valley, Golan Heights, and someother parts of neighboring countries. Would mean that Israel would officiallyconsider it part of the state of Israel.

International law is very clear: annexationand territorial conquest are forbidden by the Charter of the United Nations, said Michael Lynk, the UN independentexpert on human rights in the Palestinian territories.

United Nations chief Antonio Guterres hascalled on Israel to abandon plans to annex parts of the occupied West Bank,saying such a move would be the most serious violation of international law.

More than a thousand parliamentarians fromacross Europe have signed a joint letter protesting Israels planned annexationof parts of the occupied West Bank. The letter sent to all European foreignministries argued that such a move would be fatal to hopes for a peacefulresolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

The Arab world is vehemently protesting theplanned annexation. However, non of Aran country is in a position to fightagainst Israel. Which is well perceived by Israel and Israel ignores theiropposition.

By default, the US was supporting Israel sinceits birth in 1948. But Trump Administration was favoring Israel out of the way.Trump Administration supported Israels decision to shift its capital from TelAviv to Jerusalem. Scraping Iran nuclear deal was based merely on Israeli PrimeMinister Benjamin Netanyahus presentation to President Trump.

President Trump is a candidate forpresidential elections to be held in November 2020, and Jews have a significantimpact on US-Elections. Even, they are very few by percentage in the vote bank,but their funding plays a vital role or decisive role in elections. AlthoughPresident Trump seems reluctant to support Israeli annexation at this moment,as unpopular decisions have harmed his reputation internationally in the pastand also may damage his popularity domestically, but he also understands wellthe Jews role in his re-election.

Russia and China have big stakes in theMiddle-East and can not accept American Hegemony through the sate of Israel.Russian presence in Syria and Chinas penetration in the economy of theMiddle-East are vital factors. China and Russia both maintain good relationswith Palestine and all other countries in the neighborhood of Israel. Iran maybe the common friend of China and Russian in the anti-Israel alliance.

Accepting Israeli annexation means therecognition of Israel and the US hegemony. On the other hand, the whole world,including the UN are demanding Israel not to annex. EU is also against the annexationbut lacks the Military power to force Israel from expansionist motives. MuslimWorld is too naïve and can not resist Israel militarily. Whereas Russia andChina are military powers, and both are the permanent member of the UNSC, withveto power. They are combined with Diplomatic and Political power, along withMilitary power, it is only Russia-China, who can play a balancing role in themiddle-east.

Russia-China may promote the resolutions ofall differences and disputes amicably through diplomatic channels andnegotiations and force both sides to resolve all issues according to the UNCharter. Russia-China is in a position to play a vital and decisive role inbringing a comprehensive and long-lasting peace in the middle-east.Russia-China may contribute toward global peace and stability and for globalharmony and prosperity.

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